Food prices will increase 4–6% next year amid “Buy Canadian” movement and U.S. trade tensions
Food prices are telling a complex story about Canada’s national security, says a new report co-authored by a University of Guelph professor.
“Our food sits in the middle of trade disputes, shifts in buying behaviours and ongoing policy change,” says Dr. Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute and geography professor in the College of Social and Applied Human Sciences.
The Canada Food Price Report, produced annually by a consortium of scholars from several universities across Canada, uses a broad range of predictive models to forecast how prices will rise next year.
It predicts food prices will increase by 4–6% in 2026. An average family of four may spend up to $17,571.79 next year in groceries, an increase of up to $994.63 since last year.
Global weather events, consumer behaviours, changes in retail business models and the inflationary impacts of tariffs are all cited as major driving factors.
But authors say the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. has especially created market uncertainty. Amid the “Buy Canadian” movement sparked this year, the report noted a 6.9% decrease of U.S. food sales in Canada. Consumers, however, are still prioritizing value and affordability over country of origin, the authors add.
Canada needs strong, sovereign food system, says Fraser
The U.S. has thrown Canada’s food system into turmoil this year, Fraser says, revealing weak points that still need to be resolved.
“The more we depend on other nations for food, the more they can influence our economy and security,” he says. “Canada’s food prices and our food security are too vulnerable to things that go on outside of our borders.”
Major challenges like Canada’s complex regulatory environment and ongoing labour shortages are hindering the more independent economy Fraser calls for. To that end, Fraser co-chairs the platform Sustainable Food Systems for Canada (SF4C) along with Dr. Lenore Newman, connecting researchers with industry and government partners to keep talent and innovation inside Canada, which could help lower food prices in the future.
Though food prices are not the highest they have been, fixed factors such as rent and wages are still straining consumers’ budget, so that even a small increase in these areas can be devastating, Fraser says. Tackling the high cost of living is a central plank when addressing the impact on high food prices and food insecurity.
“Emergency food support services and programs are a critical part of addressing short-term individual crises, but they will never be a solution to the root-cause issues.”
U of G research improving global food security
Helping to feed the planet continues to be a top priority for U of G researchers.
Researchers across campus are exploring the future of vertical farming, so that producers can grow crops like strawberries indoors and year-round.
Elsewhere, scientists are honing their inventions that can kill food pathogens instantly, extending shelf life while preventing outbreaks and recalls. Others are developing AI-powered robots that are working overtime to scan for disease and to pick tomatoes right off the vine, supporting labour shortages across the industry.
Across Ontario research centres, wheat breeding programs are crafting the perfect wheat varieties, combatting major fungal diseases that can cost the economy billions of dollars in waste.
All serve U of G’s mission to improve life – which starts by improving access to safe, abundant food.
“It remains critical that we continue to collaborate across Canada,” Fraser says. “Because affordable access to food is a matter of security, both food security and as a nation.”
Contact:
Dr. Evan Fraser
afiinfo@uoguelph.ca